The 2024 Major revision of GDP
The methodological explanations and the effects of the Revision on the previously published figures of GDP (1995-2022)
The Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia has conducted a major or benchmark revision of GDP and all domains of the national accounts system in accordance with the five-year cycle of revision of national accounts of all European countries under the supervision of Eurostat. The previous revision of GDP was conducted in 2018 and 2019 and, as in all EU member states, represents a regular, continuous process by which the system of national accounts and estimation macroeconomic indicators is improved and perfected by adopting new methods and improvements of statistical and other data sources. The SORS publicly announced the forthcoming major revision to all its users on 02.10.2023 on the website. The representatives of Eurostat and the International Monetary Fund were also informed about the beginning and course of the revision.
In the Major revision of 2024, numerous improvements of the methodology of national accounts were implemented, which are the result of continuous support of the EU to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia through multiple regional and national IPA projects in the period after the previous Major revision of 2019. Moreover, in the 2024 revision, new and improved existing data sources, both administrative and statistical, were incorporated. The results of the Population census of 2022 and the Agriculture census of 2023 should be mentioned above all. Also, data sources on unincorporated enterprises (sole-proprietorships), local units (Local Kind of Activities Units - LKAU) of enterprises collected by the Statistical Business Register have been improved, a new survey on subsidies has been introduced and employment analytics have been enhanced. When it comes to methodological improvements, it should be mentioned that for the first time, the Perpetual Inventory Method (PIM) has been implemented in estimation of Consumption of Fixed Capital (CFC) with significant effects on GDP. Also, switch to the accrual principle of estimation of Government final consumption caused significant revision of this component of the GDP and the GDP itself.
Based on improved and new methods and data sources, GDP for the year 2022, as the so-called benchmark year, increased by 5.1%, and in the years from 2021 to 1995, nominal GDP increased by about 5%. When it comes to real GDP growth rates, they remained at previously published levels, with minor corrections depending on the year. Thus, in 2022, the real growth rate of 2.5% was slightly corrected upwards to 2.6%.
Below we provide explanations for the most important changes, i.e. improvements in methodology and data sources and their effect on previously published nominal GDP figures at current prices. The effects of the revision on GDP are shown for the year 2022 and, as we have already pointed out, the effects of the revision for the period 1995-2021 are at a level close to that of 2022:
- Implementation of the PIM in estimation of Consumption of Fixed Capital (CFC) as well as of the “accrual principle” in valuation of Government expenditure instead of „cash“ principle which was used so far („cash-accrual adjustments”) caused the upward corrections of Government final consumption by 19.2% and 3.1%, respectively.
- Based on the data from the 2022 Population Census as well as the 2023 Agriculture Census, the estimate of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (housing and investments in agriculture) has been revised upwards with the effect of increasing nominal GDP of about 1% in 2022, with a similar effect in the the rest of the 1995-2021 time series.
- The revision of the data on housing stock also caused a revision of the estimate of imputed rent by about 56 billion RSD or by 1.2%, which led to an upward correction of nominal GDP for the year 2022 by about 0.8%.
- Based on the change in the calculation method of the non-observed economy, a downward correction of the final consumption of Non-profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) was made by about 6.5% (RSD 5.5 billion), which resulted in a downward correction of GDP by about 0.1%. In addition, a minor correction was made based on the application of the PIM method of calculating CFC.
- Based on the data of the Customs Office, a correction of data on electricity exports and imports for the period 2016-2020 was made, which caused a correction of GDP between -0.1 and -0.2% in this period.
- Based on the implementation of the PIM method in estimation of the consumption of fixed capital, the calculation of output and gross value added for the government sector and non-profit institutions was revised, which led to an increase in GDP by 1.8% in 2022 with similar effects in the rest of the 1995-2020 series.
- When it comes to the production approach to measuring GDP, the most significant change refers to the calculation of GVA by activities which is now carried out at the level of local kind of activity units (establishments), not at the level of an enterprise. This means that the GVA of an enterprise is separated into its primary and secondary activities, which enables better accuracy of GVA estimation by activities and better consistency with short-term statistics (STS) which are also based on establishment data.
- The calculation of GVA of unincorporated enterprises has been upgraded, with significantly improved availability of financial statements as the major data source. Also, in the estimation of GVA of unincorporated enterprises, all sole proprietors who have not submitted financial statements and who are in the state of idle (“frozen”) activity are now considered as inactive and are excluded from the calculation of GVA. This has led to a significant reduction in the number of sole proprietors who are considered economically active, as well as a downward correction of GDP by about 1%.
- In addition to the above, revision of GVA figures by activities are the result of harmonization with the source data i.e. financial statements of enterprises and statistical surveys in the process of balancing the estimates of GDP at expenditure and production approach through the Commodity flow analysis, which is carried out in the process of compiling Supply and Use tables.
A summary of the revision of the components of GDP at expenditure approach is shown in the following table:
A Major revision of GDP of 2024 and the overall upgrade of the system of national accounts has enabled significantly better compliance of the methodology for estimation of GDP with the European System of National Accounts (ESA 2010) as well as a better quality of the system of national accounts in terms of accuracy, reliability, exhaustiveness and consistency with branch statistics (cross-domain consistency). The Major revision of 2024 is another important step in finalizing the harmonization of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia with European statistical regulations, standards and practices in the field of national accounts.
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The Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia releases the preliminary results of the annual GDP calculations for the year 2023, as well as the revised data for the period from 1995 to 2022.
Observed by activities, in 2023 the major share in the GDP by production method was noted for the section of manufacturing – 13.3%, the section of wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles – 10.4% and the section of information and communication – 8.2%. Regarding by the aggregates of GDP use, the share of individual consumption expenditure of households equalled 61.7%, individual consumption expenditure of government sector – 9.3%, collective consumption expenditure of government sector – 7.8%, gross fixed capital formation – 23.4%, exports of goods and services – 55.1%, and imports of goods and services – 59.4%.
Regarding by activities, in 2023 significant real growth of gross value added (GVA) created in the section of accommodation and food service equalling 17.8%, the section of electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply – 17.0%, and the section of information and communication – 14.1%. Real fall of GVA was noted for the section of water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities – 2.7% and the section of public administration and defence; compulsory social security – 2.4%.
Observed on the expenditure side, the real growth was noted for the following aggregates: the individual consumption expenditures of household sector – 0.6%, gross fixed capital formation – 9.7% and exports of goods and services –2.7%. The real fall was noted for collective consumption expenditures of general government of – 4.2%, the individual consumption expenditure of general government – 0.9% and imports of goods and services – 1.6%
1. Gross domestic product and Gross national income
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – total, RSD mill. | 5764148 | 6576024 | 7458762 | 8817763 |
| Gross domestic product - per capita, RSD | 835490 | 962205 | 1119187 | 1331348 |
| Average population number in mid-year, thousand | 6899.1 | 6834.3 | 6664.4 | 6623.2 |
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – total, USD mill. | 55948 | 66096 | 66679 | 81334 |
| Gross domestic product - per capita, USD | 8109 | 9671 | 10005 | 12280 |
| Average exchange rate, USD/RSD | 103.0272 | 99.4925 | 111.8607 | 108.4143 |
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT – total, EUR mill. | 49024 | 55931 | 63501 | 75204 |
| Gross domestic product - per capita, EUR | 7106 | 8184 | 9528 | 11355 |
| Average exchange rate, EUR/RSD | 117.5777 | 117.5733 | 117.4588 | 117.2513 |
| GROSS NATIONAL INCOME – total, RSD mill.* | 5598538 | 6336837 | 7104435 | 8353915 |
| GROSS NATIONAL INCOME – total, USD mill.* | 54340 | 63692 | 63511 | 77055 |
| GROSS NATIONAL INCOME – total, EUR mill.* | 47616 | 53897 | 60484 | 71248 |
*Gross national income data series revised on 29th November 2024 due to the availability of revised data from administrative sources
2. Gross value added, by activities, and Gross domestic product
– Current prices –
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSD mill. | ||||
| A - agriculture, forestry and fishing | 291305 | 339051 | 398174 | 333893 |
| B - mining and quarrying | 114512 | 150123 | 241962 | 250181 |
| C - manufacturing | 855741 | 951826 | 1106672 | 1171950 |
| D - electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply | 98620 | 94157 | 111454 | 179228 |
| E - water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities | 62626 | 64624 | 64344 | 71683 |
| F - construction | 272807 | 342817 | 356519 | 440987 |
| G - wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 607122 | 725576 | 756387 | 917766 |
| H - transportation and storage | 201617 | 237292 | 288946 | 355289 |
| I - accommodation and food service activities | 55603 | 75623 | 99543 | 137749 |
| J - information and communication | 364239 | 411038 | 524513 | 718979 |
| K - financial and insurance activities | 171526 | 186653 | 218729 | 354578 |
| L - real estate activities | 431657 | 479733 | 515553 | 634582 |
| M - professional, scientific and technical activities | 276174 | 307848 | 357262 | 469972 |
| N -Administrative and support service activities | 131048 | 146229 | 163990 | 211164 |
| O - public administration and defence; compulsory social security | 309327 | 332938 | 369548 | 410790 |
| P - education | 218276 | 234533 | 266092 | 303613 |
| Q - human health and social work activities | 231608 | 265781 | 292532 | 337771 |
| R - arts, entertainment and recreation | 64437 | 81680 | 111175 | 124953 |
| S - other service activities | 71839 | 78719 | 78538 | 92541 |
| T - activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use | 4102 | 4407 | 5397 | 7443 |
| U - activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Gross value added (GVA) | 4834184 | 5510648 | 6327328 | 7525112 |
| Taxes on products | 938040 | 1102505 | 1263048 | 1355115 |
| Subsidies on products (-) | 8076 | 37129 | 131614 | 62464 |
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) | 5764148 | 6576024 | 7458762 | 8817763 |
| Structure, % | ||||
| A - agriculture, forestry and fishing | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.8 |
| B - mining and quarrying | 2.0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| C - manufacturing | 14.8 | 14.5 | 14.8 | 13.3 |
| D - electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| E - water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| F - construction | 4.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| G - wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 10.5 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| H - transportation and storage | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| I - accommodation and food service activities | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| J - information and communication | 6.3 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 8.2 |
| K - financial and insurance activities | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4.0 |
| L - real estate activities | 7.5 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 7.2 |
| M - professional, scientific and technical activities | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| N -Administrative and support service activities | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| O - public administration and defence; compulsory social security | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| P - education | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| Q - human health and social work activities | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| R - arts, entertainment and recreation | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| S - other service activities | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| T - activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| U - activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Gross value added (GVA) | 83.9 | 83.8 | 84.8 | 85.3 |
| Taxes on products | 16.3 | 16.8 | 16.9 | 15.4 |
| Subsidies on products (-) | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
3. Gross value added, by activities, and Gross domestic product
– Constant prices (previous year prices) –
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSD mill. | ||||
| A - agriculture, forestry and fishing | 275741 | 284196 | 313372 | 427804 |
| B - mining and quarrying | 120726 | 145754 | 200953 | 247244 |
| C - manufacturing | 872124 | 894448 | 957859 | 1116084 |
| D - electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply | 95682 | 97976 | 99059 | 130388 |
| E - water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities | 59088 | 63750 | 56419 | 62609 |
| F - construction | 272823 | 323445 | 308625 | 393951 |
| G - wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 594862 | 681320 | 697246 | 789649 |
| H - transportation and storage | 194789 | 235828 | 251990 | 308745 |
| I - accommodation and food service activities | 50978 | 73702 | 87121 | 117263 |
| J - information and communication | 351872 | 399579 | 468636 | 598488 |
| K - financial and insurance activities | 168993 | 187816 | 187837 | 221909 |
| L - real estate activities | 416891 | 451428 | 492114 | 515939 |
| M - professional, scientific and technical activities | 259869 | 300257 | 329761 | 399813 |
| N -Administrative and support service activities | 121848 | 142830 | 154655 | 182295 |
| O - public administration and defence; compulsory social security | 292393 | 322162 | 329138 | 360571 |
| P - education | 214846 | 217721 | 256971 | 266013 |
| Q - human health and social work activities | 209387 | 232801 | 272261 | 293717 |
| R - arts, entertainment and recreation | 62788 | 79789 | 101125 | 112075 |
| S - other service activities | 69190 | 76872 | 79059 | 81751 |
| T - activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use | 4074 | 4359 | 5273 | 6987 |
| U - activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Gross value added (GVA) | 4708964 | 5216031 | 5649472 | 6633291 |
| Taxes on products | 914478 | 1014699 | 1137573 | 1260246 |
| Subsidies on products (-) | 8066 | 8387 | 38006 | 147802 |
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) | 5615376 | 6222343 | 6749038 | 7745736 |
| Real growth rates, % | ||||
| A - agriculture, forestry and fishing | 2.1 | -2.4 | -7.6 | 7.4 |
| B - mining and quarrying | 1.4 | 27.3 | 33.9 | 2.2 |
| C - manufacturing | -2.0 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| D - electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply | 3.7 | -0.7 | 5.2 | 17.0 |
| E - water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities | -3.5 | 1.8 | -12.7 | -2.7 |
| F - construction | -4.7 | 18.6 | -10.0 | 10.5 |
| G - wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 2.0 | 12.2 | -3.9 | 4.4 |
| H - transportation and storage | -10.6 | 17.0 | 6.2 | 6.9 |
| I - accommodation and food service activities | -30.4 | 32.6 | 15.2 | 17.8 |
| J - information and communication | 9.5 | 9.7 | 14.0 | 14.1 |
| K - financial and insurance activities | 4.8 | 9.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| L - real estate activities | 1.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.1 |
| M - professional, scientific and technical activities | -1.6 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 11.9 |
| N -Administrative and support service activities | -8.6 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 11.2 |
| O - public administration and defence; compulsory social security | 2.5 | 4.1 | -1.1 | -2.4 |
| P - education | -0.3 | -0.3 | 9.6 | 0.0 |
| Q - human health and social work activities | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| R - arts, entertainment and recreation | -15.7 | 23.8 | 23.8 | 0.8 |
| S - other service activities | 3.3 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 4.1 |
| T - activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use | -34.2 | 6.3 | 19.6 | 29.5 |
| U - activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Gross value added (GVA) | -0.5 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 4.8 |
| Taxes on products | -3.2 | 8.2 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| Subsidies on products (-) | 0.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 12.3 |
| GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) | -1.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 |
More tables for this topic:
Methodological explanations
More information about the benchmark revision of national accounts can be found in attachment.
For methodological explanations related to the GDP annual calculations see the SORS website: https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/istrazivanja/methodology-and-documents/?a=09&s=090201
More detailed and extensive data series at current and constant prices are available on the SORS website, in database: https://data.stat.gov.rs/?caller=090201&languageCode=en-US
Starting from 1999 the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia has not at disposal and may not provide available data relative to AP Kosovo and Metohija; therefore, these data are not included in the coverage for the Republic of Serbia (total).